Record Drop: Russia Loses Positions in the Oil Market.

According to Bloomberg, Russian crude oil exports fell by 540,000 barrels per day, reaching the lowest level since August 2023. This primarily affected the western ports of Russia, particularly Ust-Luga, where transshipment volume decreased by 25% in the four weeks leading up to January 5.

During the last ten days of December, at least five shipments were removed from the loading schedule. Further declines in oil transshipment were recorded in January, with only five unloadings, representing half of the previous month's volume.

One possible reason for the drop in exports may be the increased processing volumes at Russian refineries for domestic consumption.

However, no short-term incidents or attacks by Ukrainian drones on the port are significant enough to explain such a decline. Part of the crude oil may have been redirected to the Pacific port of Kozmino, which reported record deliveries last month.

The Russian port was supposed to receive additional oil delivered via the Gruzovaya railway station. This could increase flows by 7 million tons per year or about 140,000 barrels per day.

In December, Russia produced slightly less oil than planned by OPEC+. The average production volume was 8.971 million barrels per day, which was almost unchanged compared to November, although the target production volume increased by 30,000 barrels per day.