Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate by the End of May: Analyst Warns of Alarming Signals for Ukraine.

Currency Exchange Rate Forecast for May 22-28, 2025:

The Ukrainian currency market is facing a challenging week due to a number of negative events. Donald Trump has declared a war, Russia's aggression continues, the European Union is considering tariffs on Ukrainian goods, and the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded. All these factors create an unstable situation for the hryvnia exchange rate.

Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev analyzed the factors influencing the dollar and euro exchange rates in Ukraine this week. He noted that the market is influenced by conflicting news from the United States and tensions between Ukraine and Russia. While Trump calls for peace, Russia shows no willingness for dialogue, amplifying geopolitical conflicts.

Key factors affecting the exchange rate (May 22-28, 2025):

1. International Instability:

   • Ukraine-Russia Negotiations and Trump's Statements: The lack of progress and conflicting signals from Washington create uncertainty.

   • Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating: Moody's agency downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first Time since 1917, undermining the dollar in global markets.

   • Situation in the Middle East: The escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict affects oil and gold prices.

2. Domestic Aspects in Ukraine:

   • Memorial Day in the U.S.: Dollar settlements in Ukraine will operate in TOM mode due to the non-working day in the U.S. The least activity is expected on May 26.

   • Possible EU Tariffs on Ukrainian Goods: The introduction of tariffs may negatively affect the hryvnia exchange rate and increase the need for currency interventions by the NBU.

   • Public Sentiment: Positive trend: the population is buying less currency, which affects the hryvnia exchange rate.

3. Actions of the National Bank: The NBU will maintain currency stability through interventions.

Oleksiy Kozyrev forecasts the following exchange rates:

• Interbank: USD: 41.30 – 41.75 UAH/$, Euro: 46.33 – 47.63 UAH/€

• Cash Market (Banks): USD: 41.10 – 41.90 UAH/$, Euro: 46.15 – 47.75 UAH/€

• Cash Market (Currency Exchange Offices): USD: 41.10 – 41.85 UAH/$, Euro: 46.30 – 47.70 UAH/€

• Spread in Exchange Offices: for the dollar 20-25 kopecks, for the euro 20-30 kopecks; in wholesale exchange offices – 15-20 kopecks.

Kozyrev noted that the euro will remain the most speculative instrument in the cash market.