ISW: Russians intensify offensives at the front amid suspension of military aid.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are increasingly going on the offensive at the front, hoping to exploit the suspension of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and achieve new victories. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the report, Russian troops are increasing their activity in certain combat areas in order to gain an advantage from the cessation of American aid to Ukraine. Special attention is being paid to the Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk directions. Russia is progressively pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region and capturing Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

ISW experts gladly compare the current offensive of Russian troops to the period when they had access to military equipment from Ukraine after the cessation of American assistance in the spring of 2024. At that Time, they achieved significant success in Donetsk and began offensive operations in the Kharkiv region.

The Kremlin is likely planning to exploit the expected shortage of military equipment in Ukraine to achieve new victories if the suspension of U.S. aid continues

Experts cite Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, who stated that supplies of American weapons to Ukraine are likely to be restored, but Russia’s main task remains to inflict the greatest damage on Ukraine during this limited time.

Experts also note that Russian troops continue their offensive against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and towards Chasiv Yar. They are likely planning to exploit the anticipated consequences of the cessation of U.S. aid, particularly the exchange of intelligence data, to achieve their operational goals in these areas.

Earlier, ISW analysts indicated that Russian officials might use the suspension of U.S. military assistance and the exchange of intelligence data with Ukraine to spread a false narrative about Russia’s superiority as an inevitable victory.